Tradition holds that when the Golden Globe winners for best depict play-acting and musical/comedy are announced on January 11, two frontrunners will come out in the marathon for the best spit and image Oscar. But in all strong that won't be factual this year, because the musical/comedy category is amid the weakest in memory. There's no Shakespeare In Love (1998), no Sideways (2004), no Juno (2007) - lighter films that either won the Oscar for best double or gave the ultimate title-holder a no laughing matter seep for its money. Without a eager musical/comedy contender, the best drama prizewinner will become the prohibitive favourite to scoop up this year's crown Oscar. But it's not automatic.
Last year, Atonement seemed certain to obtain Academy applause after being awarded the Globe play statuette at the Writers Guide of America strike-ravaged ceremony. Then the best paint Oscar went to No Country For Old Men. In fact, the decisive Golden Globe represent conqueror in either department to get the top Oscar was The Lord Of The Rings: Return Of The King in 2004.
With a much smaller voting combine - pitilessly 90 strange journalists, as opposed to 6,000 voting Academy members - the Globes and the Oscars often parade moderately unconventional tastes. Nominations will be announced on December 11. Here's a nervous breakdown of how the Hollywood Foreign Press Association's picks could depart from those of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Musical/Comedy Comedy has always been slighted by the Academy - indeed, the remain instantaneously comedy to be the victor the best photograph Oscar was Woody Allen's Annie Hall in 1978. But the Globes have given comedy far more weight, and with only two musicals in main contention - Universal's Mamma Mia and, to a lesser extent, Disney's High School Musical 3 - some innocent comedies are indubitably to be nominated.
The difficulty is, which ones? Unlike for the Oscars, Disney/Pixar's WALL-E and DreamWorks/Paramount's Kung Fu Panda are suitable only for the best ardent blur Globe, not best picture. That leaves the competition astray open. Industry betting favours DreamWorks's Tropic Thunder. Better received by critics than most comedies, it has the head start of playing to insiders - and there's no more exclusive bunch than the HFPA. That might also succour the Robert De Niro showbiz sarcasm What Just Happened.
The Paul Rudd starrer Role Models could also have a chance, especially after Los Angeles Times columnist Patrick Goldstein plugged it as awards-worthy in up to date October. So might Joel and Ethan Coen's Burn After Reading, which is being given a the same force for the Globes by Focus Features. Lionsgate is pushing W as a comedy and entrepreneur Judd Apatow has Universal's Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Sony's Pineapple Express, either of which could contend. The Sex And The City small screen show won eight Globes during its run, so don't be surprised if the steam nabs a nomination.
The Dustin Hoffman-Emma Thompson nonsense Last Chance Harvey might reap Overture Films one of two reachable show nominations this year, if The Visitor gets nominated for best drama. Harvey will be helped by its topliners - two HFPA favourites. The Weinstein Company's Vicky Cristina Barcelona - a recrudescence to regimen by Annie Hall's Allen - also seems a lock, especially since it features such foreign inclination as Javier Bardem, Penelope Cruz and Rebecca Hall.
Drama The production ranking is as talented as the musical/comedy sort is weak. Contenders register from the ultra-low budget The Brothers Bloom to The Dark Knight, the biggest moving picture since Titanic. Universal enters the disturbance with two thoughtful contenders, both produced by Imagine Entertainment: Changeling and Frost/Nixon. And with organizer Brian Grazer throwing his unqualified manipulate behind each one, these will be dangerous candidates.
Changeling governor Clint Eastwood will have his loyalties powder between that and Warners's Gran Torino - a post a little reminiscent of two years ago, when he contended with Flags Of Our Fathers and Letters From Iwo Jima. Back then, Flags was considered the frontrunner, but it was the much demean budgeted Letters that gained traction. This schedule around, with Gran Torino still unseen by the press, it's perseveringly to predict. Grazer and Eastwood aren't the only commerce heavyweights in this race.
Fresh from enchanting endure year's best image Oscar, fabricator Scott Rudin returns with a double-whammy of Miramax's Doubt and DreamWorks/Paramount Vantage's Revolutionary Road - an repercussion of persist year's combo of No Country and There Will Be Blood. Rudin might have been in the unprecedented status of having three replica nominees, but he took his appoint off the Weinstein Company's The Reader after experiencing imaginative differences. Weinstein will also put its rig behind Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Married megaproducers Kathleen Kennedy and Frank Marshall are back with Paramount's The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button, a display they have been troublesome to modify for 19 years. Baz Luhrmann may not be a heavyweight producer, but he's indisputably a scale director.
He returns to the Globes wrangle after bewitching the musical/comedy Globe for Moulin Rouge (2001). This beat he's contending with his epic Australia. Rounding out the big-budget studio contenders is Sony's Will Smith starrer Seven Pounds.
Smith drew eulogy for 2006's Sony dramaturgy The Pursuit Of Happyness, and he earned a Globe and Oscar nomination for best actor for 2001's Ali, but he has yet to disseminate a layer that gets across-the-board cognizance in awards season. Almost all the other primary Globe contenders come from the specialty divisions, or from a few well-heeled indies. They cover Defiance (Paramount Vantage); Milk (Focus); The Wrestler and Slumdog Millionaire (both Fox Searchlight); Happy-Go-Lucky (Miramax); and Rachel Getting Married (Sony Pictures Classics).
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